The Disappearance of Madeleine McCann: 5 Theories About What Really Happened

"One startling element is the sheer number of sexual predators in the area at the time," the trailer for the documentary narrates. Although the town where the McCanns were staying was a resort popular with European tourists like them, there were also a significant number of convicted predators in the area just around the resort.

The Telegraph also reports similar information: that there had been an unusually high number of assaults on young girls in the area.

"Police identified nine sexual assaults and three 'near misses' on British girls aged between six to 12 in the three years before Madeleine went missing. In one case from 2005, a ten-year-old girl was assaulted in an apartment Praia da Luz, close to the spot from where Madeleine vanished," the article reported. Additionally, The Guardian reported that the police pursued this possibility as well.

"Metropolitan police in Britain appealed for information on a total of 12 incidents in which an intruder entered holiday accommodation in three resort areas including one where Madeleine, then three, went missing in May 2007. Four of these cases, between 2004 and 2006, involved assaults on girls aged seven to 10 and one involved two children, according to Scotland Yard."

This information could suggest that Madeleine was kidnapped by a local predator, perhaps one who had spotted her with her family earlier in their stay.

It's the least conspiratorial theory by far, but because of the resort's seaside location, there remains a possibility that Madeleine's death was simply a tragic accident.

Reddit user glittercheese suggests this theory. "I think she woke up, left the apartment and wandered off. She either died either by drowning in the ocean (kids her age love water) or by some other form of misadventure. I do not think foul play was involved," they wrote in a thread about McCann's disappearance. They added as a later comment, "Drowning is the #1 cause of accidental death for kids age 1-4. They lack the capacity to understand the danger of water. It's why pools are required to be fenced in, at least where I live. The draw is very strong, and kids don't realise that they are in trouble until it's too late."

All reports on the case note that the family's apartment door was slightly open already when Madeleine was discovered missing, and the physical arrangement of the resort's apartments meant that there was relatively easy access to the outside road (where she also could have been killed accidentally) and nearby water. This theory suggests that there was no crime committed at all — just mistakes and circumstances that led to tragedy.

The documentary does raise the possibility that Madeleine's disappearance was connected to a larger human trafficking scheme. In the documentary, private investigator Julian Peribanez speculates on the possibility that Madeleine was abducted and sold into trafficking — and he thinks she's still alive, if that's the case.

"The value that Madeleine had was really high . . . If they took her it's because they were going to get a lot of money," he explained. Why would Madeleine have been so valuable? As a white, middle-class, European girl of a very young age, she would have been "rarer" than, say, older children from poorer families who are statistically more likely to get caught up in trafficking as runaways or in similar situations.

A connected theory is that she was abducted specifically to be sold to a childless couple, as the Telegraph reported. This theory hinges on the fact that "suspicious characters" had been seen lurking around the resort in the days prior to Madeleine's disappearance, leading some to believe that she was scouted out and kidnapped because she was specifically chosen. In this scenario, too, Madeleine would most likely still be alive somewhere, living out her life somewhere without knowing the truth.

As noted previously, the area around the resort of Praia da Luz was home to an unusually large number of predators. One of the simpler theories about Madeleine's disappearance is simply that she was the victim of a random crime: unattended children frequently seen in an area, plus a high concentration of predators, and she just happened to be the one grabbed, perhaps because her bed was reportedly closest to the door.

At least one Reddit thread brings up this theory: "An opportunist snatched her, and was well out of the area before any proper investigation started to take place . . . It could've been either kid, her sister just got lucky. Only one was taken, so it's going to be one kidnapper and likely unplanned beyond having seen Madeleine during their holiday."

One theory — actively pursued by Portuguese law enforcement — was that Madeleine's parents, Kate and Gerry McCann, were involved in their daughter's disappearance. The going theory was that the McCanns had intended to simply sedate Madeleine so she would sleep soundly while they went out to dinner, but that something went wrong and they turned to the kidnapping story to cover it up.

The Netflix documentary explores this theory, highlighting the parents' denial of involvement in a press clip in the trailer. Amateur sleuths on Reddit and other forums seem to be remain suspicious of the McCanns, years after they were officially cleared (and even won a libel case against a former detective who wrote a book claiming they were involved).

"I think her parents sedated her, something went wrong, and they accidentally killed her. I think they used the times they returned to the apartment to check on the children to stage the kidnapping," wrote Reddit user rainbowlilies. Dozens of comments on threads inviting theories about the McCann case follow a similar train of thought, emphasizing the parents' changing stories about the night of the disappearance and questioning their behaviour during the investigations. The "cover-up" theory is by far the most widespread; few seem to believe that Madeleine was intentionally harmed by her own parents.

The McCanns declined to participate in Netflix's documentary, issuing a statement that reads, in part, "We are aware that Netflix are planning to screen a documentary in March 2019 about Madeleine's disappearance. The production company told us that they were making the documentary and asked us to participate. We did not see and still do not see how this programme will help the search for Madeleine and, particularly given there is an active police investigation, could potentially hinder it. Consequently, our views and preferences are not reflected in the programme. We will not be making any further statements or giving interviews regarding this programme."